Triple H and Nick Khan could soon find themselves answering to more than just WWE fans.
According to Dave Meltzer in the Wrestling Observer Newsletter, JP Morgan analysts have flagged declining fan sentiment and concerns over WWE’s creative direction as risks for TKO ahead of its August 3 quarterly earnings report. Meltzer noted it’s the first time he’s seen complaints from WWE fans become part of a major stock market analysis.
JP Morgan lowered its price target for TKO from $225 to $222. While that remains well above the company’s current stock price, the analysts said they’ve become more cautious in the short term because of higher operating costs, weaker fan sentiment and fewer major business catalysts.
One point stood out above the rest. According to Meltzer, the report specifically pointed to concerns about WWE’s creative quality, tying that to softer SummerSlam ticket demand. The analysts also highlighted declining Raw viewership on Netflix and questioned whether the company’s recent momentum can be maintained. As Meltzer put it:
“It is notable that this may be the first time I’ve seen a stock report on WWE where online complaints were taken seriously. This will probably lead, now that this has infiltrated Wall Street, to Nick Khan and Paul Levesque trying to downplay that as being a real metric.”
JP Morgan estimated WWE generated $619 million in revenue during the quarter, a 30 percent increase year over year, driven largely by richer media rights agreements and increased sponsorship revenue. However, analysts reduced their overall profit expectations for TKO, estimating EBITDA of $638 million, down from a previous projection of $661 million. Much of that change was attributed to the higher-than-expected costs of UFC’s White House event and related fan festivals.
The analysts also warned that several growth drivers have already come and gone, including the UFC White House show, Conor McGregor’s return and the launch of Zuffa Boxing. They added that WWE’s creative direction and Zuffa Boxing remain areas worth monitoring. The report stated:
“WWE fan dissatisfaction is worth watching but is not yet a structural problem. Premium live event viewing appears to be growing, although Raw ratings are trending down year over year.”
Those year-over-year numbers reflect a slight decline for Raw and a much steeper drop for SmackDown and NXT.
- • Raw YTD Average: 2,729,630 viewers (down 40,741, or 1.47%, from last year’s 2,770,370 average)
- • NXT YTD Average: 602,963 viewers (down 114,140, or 15.92%, from last year’s 717,103 average)
- • SmackDown YTD Average: 1,216,296 viewers (down 195,842, or 13.87%, from last year’s 1,412,138 average)
Despite the concerns, Meltzer reported that WWE management is not expected to make any major changes in the immediate future. According to people within WWE, the company is looking much further ahead. Meltzer wrote that the real evaluation point is expected to come around 2028, when the Netflix and USA Media Rights deals are approaching their expiration at the end of 2029.
“I was told even so, right now nothing is expected to happen until around 2028 at which point the Netflix deal and USA deals will be in play, with both ending at the end of 2029. If numbers aren’t strong, we’re told that’s when Mark Shapiro and company will really start pressuring Nick Khan and Levesque. And if numbers are strong, things will stay the way they are.”
For now, WWE’s business remains strong by historical standards. However, with Wall Street now paying attention to fan dissatisfaction alongside television performance and live event demand, WWE’s creative direction is no longer just a talking point among fans—it has become something investors are watching as well.
Do you think WWE’s current creative direction is affecting business, or are Wall Street analysts putting too much weight on fan criticism? Let us know in the comments below.
