AEW WrestleDream on October 17, 2026, is officially in the books, and the betting odds were almost dead-on. The oddsmakers correctly picked nearly every winner on the card, but one championship upset gave fans who backed the underdogs a chance to walk away with some serious cash.
Before the show, BetOnline.ag released betting odds for 10 matches. Will Ospreay, Jon Moxley, Mercedes Moné and The Young Bucks were all massive favorites, with some of those lines offering almost nothing in return for a $100 wager. Now that AEW WrestleDream is in the books, we can see just how much money someone could have made betting on the winners. And while the bookmakers got most of their predictions right, the biggest payday came from the one match they got wrong.
AEW WrestleDream Betting Odds vs. Actual Results
Here’s a look at all 10 winners, their odds going into the show, and how much someone would have made by placing a $100 bet on each one.
| Match Winner | Betting Odds | $100 Bet Profit | Total Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ospreay | -2000 | $5.00 | $105.00 |
| Jon Moxley | -3000 | $3.33 | $103.33 |
| Andrade El Idolo | -200 | $50.00 | $150.00 |
| Persephone | -500 | $20.00 | $120.00 |
| Mercedes Moné | -1500 | $6.67 | $106.67 |
| The Young Bucks | -5000 | $2.00 | $102.00 |
| Adam Page & Brodido | +250 | $250.00 | $350.00 |
| Nick Wayne | -120 | $83.33 | $183.33 |
| Motor City Machine Guns | -135 | $74.07 | $174.07 |
| Divine Dominion | -900 | $11.11 | $111.11 |
These payouts are based on the betting odds provided before WrestleDream. Profit represents money won beyond the original $100 wager, while total payout includes the original stake.
The biggest winner for bettors wasn’t Ospreay, Moxley or any of the other huge favorites. It was Adam Page and Brodido. Swerve Strickland and The New Level entered their AEW World Trios Championship match as -400 favorites, while Page, Brody King and Bandido were sitting at +250. The underdogs ended up winning the titles, which means a $100 bet on Page and Brodido would have paid out $350, including $250 in pure profit.
The Young Bucks were at the complete opposite end of the spectrum. Matt and Nick Jackson entered as massive -5000 favorites against Kyle Fletcher and Kevin Knight, and they retained their AEW World Tag Team Championships. But anyone betting $100 on the Bucks would have made a whopping $2 in profit. That’s right, risk $100 to win two bucks.
Jon Moxley wasn’t much better. His -3000 odds against Mark Davis meant a $100 winning bet would have earned just $3.33. Will Ospreay’s -2000 odds in the Clockwork Carnage match would have produced $5 in profit, while Mercedes Moné’s win over Thekla at -1500 would have made bettors $6.67. Those were winning bets, but nobody was getting rich off them.
How Accurate Were the AEW WrestleDream Betting Odds?
The oddsmakers had a pretty impressive night when it came to predicting the actual winners. Of the 10 matches with betting lines, nine had a clear favorite. Eight of those nine favorites won their matches.
| Betting Prediction | Result |
|---|---|
| Will Ospreay (-2000) | Correct |
| Jon Moxley (-3000) | Correct |
| Andrade El Idolo (-200) | Correct |
| Persephone (-500) | Correct |
| Mercedes Moné (-1500) | Correct |
| The Young Bucks (-5000) | Correct |
| Swerve Strickland & The New Level (-400) | Wrong |
| Motor City Machine Guns (-135) | Correct |
| Divine Dominion (-900) | Correct |
| Nick Wayne vs. Chris Jericho (-120 each) | No clear favorite |
That gives the oddsmakers an 88.9% success rate in matches where one wrestler or team was favored to win. The only real upset came when Adam Page and Brodido defeated Swerve Strickland and The New Level to capture the AEW World Trios Championships. Nick Wayne’s victory over Chris Jericho doesn’t count as an upset because both wrestlers were listed at -120, meaning there wasn’t a clear betting favorite.
Even more interesting, every favorite listed at -500 or shorter won. The Young Bucks, Moxley, Ospreay, Mercedes Moné, Persephone and Divine Dominion all delivered. The bookmakers clearly knew which way most of this card was heading.
What If You Bet $100 on Every Favorite at AEW WrestleDream?
Picking winners is one thing. Actually making money is another. Let’s say someone decided to play it safe and bet $100 on every clear favorite at WrestleDream. That would mean nine separate bets totaling $900. Eight would have won, while the wager on Swerve Strickland and The New Level would have lost.
| Betting Breakdown | Amount |
|---|---|
| Total Money Wagered | $900.00 |
| Winning Bets | 8 |
| Losing Bets | 1 |
| Total Money Returned | $972.18 |
| Final Profit | $72.18 |
So even after correctly backing eight out of nine favorites, someone betting $900 would have walked away with just $72.18 in profit. That one loss in the World Trios Championship match wiped out a pretty good chunk of the money made from the other winners. If that same bettor also placed $100 on Nick Wayne, bringing their total investment to $1,000 across all 10 matches, their total profit would have increased to $155.52. Not terrible, but considering how many matches they correctly predicted, that’s hardly a massive payday.
What If You Bet $100 on Every WrestleDream Winner?
Now here’s where the numbers get much more interesting. Imagine someone somehow picked every single match correctly before WrestleDream and put $100 on each winner. That would mean 10 successful wagers, including the big upset involving Adam Page and Brodido.
| Betting Breakdown | Amount |
|---|---|
| Total Money Wagered | $1,000.00 |
| Winning Bets | 10 |
| Losing Bets | 0 |
| Total Profit | $506.52 |
| Total Payout | $1,506.52 |
A perfect night would have earned $506.52 in profit on $1,000 wagered. However, nearly half of that profit would have come from just one match. The +250 victory by Adam Page and Brodido accounted for $250 of those winnings. Without that upset, the returns wouldn’t have been nearly as impressive.
Which AEW WrestleDream Bets Paid the Most Money?
The biggest payouts didn’t necessarily come from the biggest matches. In fact, some of AEW’s most heavily favored champions offered the smallest returns. Here’s how the actual winners ranked based on how much profit a $100 wager would have generated.
| Rank | WrestleDream Winner | Profit on $100 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adam Page & Brodido | $250.00 |
| 2 | Nick Wayne | $83.33 |
| 3 | Motor City Machine Guns | $74.07 |
| 4 | Andrade El Idolo | $50.00 |
| 5 | Persephone | $20.00 |
| 6 | Divine Dominion | $11.11 |
| 7 | Mercedes Moné | $6.67 |
| 8 | Will Ospreay | $5.00 |
| 9 | Jon Moxley | $3.33 |
| 10 | The Young Bucks | $2.00 |
The Young Bucks might have been the safest-looking pick on paper, but their victory offered the smallest payout on the entire card. Meanwhile, Nick Wayne and Motor City Machine Guns delivered much better returns despite not being considered locks heading into WrestleDream. Adam Page and Brodido blew everyone else out of the water.
Looking back at WrestleDream, the bookmakers pretty much nailed it. Eight of the nine clear favorites won, but correctly picking those winners didn’t automatically mean making a ton of money. Some of AEW’s biggest stars offered just a few dollars in profit on a $100 wager, while the one championship upset delivered a $250 profit for anyone who backed the challengers.
The oddsmakers may have gotten almost everything right at AEW WrestleDream, but the fans who trusted Adam Page and Brodido had the last laugh. Did the betting odds surprise you, or was the World Trios Championship upset something you saw coming? Would you have played it safe with the favorites or taken a chance on the underdogs? Let us know what you think and leave your feedback in the comments below.
