AEW’s TV numbers may not always look pretty on the surface, but the company may be in a much stronger position than a lot of fans realize.
During Wrestling Observer Radio, Dave Meltzer discussed the latest AEW Dynamite rating and said the show had a tough night on paper because it went against massive sports competition. Dynamite drew 638,000 viewers and a 0.11 in the key demo, but Meltzer said the number held up better than expected considering what AEW was facing.
“Dynamite was 638 and 0.11. I mean, Dynamite, you know, obviously down from last week, but Jesus Christ, you know, everyone knew it would be. I think it held up better than expected, but it was a loaded show.”
Meltzer pointed out that AEW stacked the episode with major attractions, including an MJF title match, Will Ospreay vs. Mark Davis, Mercedes Moné’s surprise return, and Mike Bailey vs. Kevin Knight. He said Tony Khan clearly loaded the show because of the competition.
“I mean, you had an MJF title match, you had that incredible Ospreay match with Mark Davis. You know, you had Mercedes return. Surprise. You had a lot. You had a lot on that show. Mike Bailey and Kevin Knight had a hell of a match. So, I mean, Tony loaded it up knowing he was going against that game when he loaded up.”
Despite the tough competition, Meltzer said AEW had a solid night. Dynamite finished third on cable for the night and second in its timeslot, only behind the College Softball World Series on ESPN. Meltzer also noted that AEW beat Fox News, something he said does not happen often.
“They were third on cable for the night, second in the time slot. The only thing that beat him was the World Series, College Softball World Series on ESPN. They beat Fox News, which they rarely beat. I mean, overall it was a good night for AEW ratings under the circumstances.”
The bigger issue, according to Meltzer, is how the Nielsen ratings system has changed the way wrestling viewership looks to the public. He said someone he knows was able to get the older panel-style ratings, and those numbers painted a very different picture.
“The one thing though, that was probably the most revealing thing to me… one person who I know was able to get the original way they know, the panel ratings.”
Meltzer said the change is not just hurting AEW on paper. He said SmackDown, Dynamite, Collision, and even TNA are all being affected by the way wrestling is now measured.
“This is the ratings changes causing that for pro wrestling. Not, not any one promotion, but pro wrestling. It’s affecting TNA the same way as it affects WWE and AEW.”
Meltzer explained that the difference is big enough to make wrestling look about 25 percent lower in value under the current system, while the old system would add roughly 35 percent in the key demo.
“Essentially like, you know, SmackDown and Dynamite and Collision are, you know, I mean, it’s about, you know, you would probably, for 18 to 49, you’re talking about probably adding 35% the old way or detracting, you know, I mean, the math is different, but detracting like 25% of what it was before, so to speak.”
That led Meltzer to his main point. He said people are judging AEW based on public TV numbers that do not tell the full story, because when the numbers are compared fairly, AEW is much hotter than it looks.
“Because everyone focuses on TV ratings and they change the ratings to make it so much worse for wrestling, people will look at the ratings and go, ‘oh God, WWE SmackDown skit, you know, Cody’s fault and blah, blah, blah.’ And they’re down a little bit. But AEW is like way up, you know, from, from, you know, on the, you know, apples to apples comparison. Way up.”
Meltzer then made the strongest statement of the discussion, saying AEW is at its strongest point since CM Punk’s early run with the company before Punk’s broken foot.
“It’s the strongest they’ve been since Punk was there. Early Punk. I’m talking Punk pre-broken foot, not Punk after broken foot.”
Meltzer said AEW’s first peak came when Punk, Bryan Danielson, and Adam Cole arrived around the same time. In his view, AEW is now in a second peak, sitting just below that original hot period.
“That would be the Punk pre Broken Foot with Danielson and Adam Cole also arriving at the same time was probably AEW’s peak. It was AEW’s peak, but now we are at a second peak and it is right underneath that.”
He also said AEW’s strong pay-per-view business backs up the idea that the company is in a good place creatively and commercially. Meltzer pushed back on the idea that the pay-per-views are doing well by accident.
“The pay per views are up because the product is way up right now.”
Meltzer then gave the apples-to-apples comparison for Dynamite, saying the show would have been much higher under the old system. He also pointed out that this does not include Max viewership.
“I mean, that’s, I guess that’s the main thing that I learned, you know, like an apples to apples comparison. It’s 827 and 0.20 and that’s not including Max.”
Meltzer said that once Max is factored in, AEW may be closer to the level it reached during its previous peak.
“If you go in there and, you know, whatever you want to attribute to HBO Max, you’re talking, you know, you’re basically at the level that you were at the peak. It’s actually quite successful.”
AEW still has plenty of critics watching every number that comes out, but Meltzer’s argument is that the public ratings are not showing the full picture. Between stronger pay-per-view numbers, a hotter product, and Nielsen changes making wrestling look worse across the board, AEW may be in a much better spot than the weekly TV headlines suggest.
Please credit Ringside News if you use the above transcript in your publication.
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