WWE and AEW could be heading into another major television ratings shakeup, and the fallout could go far beyond fans arguing about weekly numbers.
Nielsen is set to make another major adjustment to its television measurement system on August 31, and the change could have serious consequences for how wrestling performs in the key 18-49 demographic. Previous adjustments have already created dramatic swings in the numbers attached to WWE, AEW and other wrestling programming.
The ratings system has undergone multiple changes as Nielsen attempts to modernize the way television audiences are measured. Major sports organizations, particularly the NFL, had pushed back over concerns that viewers were being undercounted, which led to changes that benefited football while creating a much rougher picture for professional wrestling.
Wrestling was hit especially hard under some of those changes. NXT and SmackDown both saw significant effects, while AEW programming was also impacted by the new measurement system.
The upcoming August 31 adjustment could change things again, but there is no clear answer yet on whether professional wrestling will come out ahead or take another hit. The first couple of weeks under the new system should give a much better indication of where WWE and AEW actually stand.
One part of the new methodology could potentially help wrestling. Nielsen is expected to place greater emphasis on Hispanic-American audiences due to concerns that those viewers have been undercounted. Considering professional wrestling’s strong following among Mexican-American viewers, that adjustment could work in wrestling’s favor, although there is no guarantee.
The biggest issue here is money. Television ratings directly affect advertising value, network perception and future media rights negotiations. Even relatively small changes in how audiences are measured can translate into massive amounts of money when networks are negotiating deals worth hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars.
Wrestling has also been hit much harder than some other sports properties when it comes to recent demographic changes. NASCAR raised concerns over declines around the 5% range, while professional wrestling has faced drops in the 18-49 demographic reaching into the 30% and 40% range under certain measurement changes.
That doesn’t necessarily mean millions of wrestling fans suddenly stopped watching. It means the system used to count those viewers changed, which can dramatically alter the numbers networks and advertisers see when deciding how valuable a television show really is.
WWE and AEW are already operating in a television landscape that is rapidly moving toward streaming, and another major Nielsen adjustment only adds another variable. Once the August 31 changes kick in, it won’t take long before the industry gets a clearer picture of whether wrestling caught a break or took another major ratings hit.
How much do you think Nielsen’s new ratings system will impact WWE and AEW moving forward? Let us know what you think and leave your feedback in the comments.
