AEW Could Lose HBO Max as Netflix-WBD Deal Puts Streaming Future in Doubt

AEW’s long-term streaming situation is suddenly far less certain, and the fallout from a massive media deal could force the company into a risky new home.

Netflix is moving forward with an $82.7 billion acquisition involving Warner Bros. Discovery’s studio assets, including HBO and HBO Max. The deal is expected to close in the third quarter of 2025, pending regulatory approval. While the numbers are staggering, the key issue for AEW is simple: sports programming is not part of what Netflix is buying.

Dave Meltzer laid out the full picture on Wrestling Observer Radio, explaining exactly how the deal is structured and why AEW is caught in the middle.

“So Netflix sent out a release basically saying we have purchased the company. WBD’s board of directors approved the Netflix deal again. It was an eighty‑two point seven billion dollar deal, but only for the studios — HBO, HBO Max. Nothing else, right? So all the stations would stay with WBD in their new company, which would also get all the debt.”

That distinction is critical. Meltzer explained that because HBO Max under Netflix would not include sports, AEW could lose its current streaming platform entirely.

“The timetable right now is that it’s going to Netflix pending regulatory approval, and the feeling is that it will be closed in the third quarter of this year, so like in the fall. That would be the time where we’re going to know most importantly the AEW streaming situation.”

If AEW is pushed off HBO Max, the likely landing spot would be Warner Bros. Discovery’s upcoming TNT Sports app — a platform that would launch without an established audience.

“Are they going to stay on HBO Max, or is HBO Max — which is not taking any of the sports programming — not going to take them, and then they will have to start basically on the TNT Sports app? That is going to be done, but that’s going to start with like zero subscribers.”

Meltzer contrasted that scenario with AEW’s current reach, noting how much leverage the company would lose overnight. He then explained why keeping AEW’s television, streaming, and pay‑per‑view rights under one roof is crucial for maintaining value.

“As far as AEW is concerned, this has about fifty‑eight million subscribers in the United States. They have a lot more worldwide, but their deal is only United States.”

“If the new company, which is all the TV stations and also would have TNT Sports, has AEW, by having that they would be getting the pay‑per‑view rights to the AEW product and the streaming rights to the product. So it would all be in one company.”

That unified structure, Meltzer said, keeps AEW’s value intact — even if budgets and priorities change. The danger comes if AEW’s rights are split between different companies. In that case, television partners would judge AEW almost entirely on linear ratings.

“So the value of AEW to that one company would be the same. It’s just a question of that company and how much it can spend and things like that.”

“If it was split, the value of AEW to the new TV company is just based on their television ratings alone — which are not that great right now.”

Meltzer stressed that this problem isn’t unique to AEW, pointing out that the modern ratings system has hurt everyone.

“Obviously the new system has killed them as it’s killed everyone. It’s hurt SmackDown badly. It’s hurt NXT the worst of all.”

Still, Meltzer left the door open to one potential upside: negotiating separate deals with multiple companies could theoretically result in more money overall.

“It could also be that now you’re negotiating with two separate companies, and maybe the deals with each separate company might end up being more than with one company.”

For now, nothing is finalized. Paramount has reportedly submitted a competing bid, and regulatory approval is still months away. But once the deal closes, AEW’s streaming fate could change fast — and not necessarily in its favor.

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