At Wrestlemania, four men will compete for the star-spangled belt. While theoretically every man has a 25% chance of winning, I feel that’s not the case here. Some superstars have a higher chance of becoming (or remaining) United States Champion than others.

Legally, though, I feel obliged to disclaim my opinions here. These are not based on betting odds, nor are they based on insider scoops or whatever. My word is not gospel. Do not bet the farm on what I say.

Now that’s out of theway, what are each superstar’s chances of winning?

Randy Orton

As the reigning and defending United States Champion, Randy really has his work cut out for him. He has to fend off three other elite superstars who are gunning for his title. Not only that, but he also does not have to be involved in the decision of the match to lose. That can be said for everyone else, but it’s Randy who has the most to lose.

Still, I’m confident that Orton will retain the red, white, and blue in New Orleans. There hasn’t really been a long reign since Roman Reigns held it in 2016. There have been some surprising dud champions like Kevin Owens and AJ Styles. Meanwhile, Baron Corbin and Bobby Roode lost the title before they could build up any real momentum.

If WWE wants to repair the image of the US Championship, then having Orton hold it for a while is a safe bet. I’m also kind of hoping for a Randy Orton Open Challenge for the United States Championship, so I’d like to see him hold the title for a while.

Orton’s Chances of Winning: 40%

Bobby Roode

I have to say, Roode’s been involved in some great matches over the United States Championship. His triple threat with Baron Corbin and Dolph Ziggler was surprisingly great. When he was United States Champion, he had great matches against Rusev and Randy Orton.

I don’t doubt that Roode will become United States Champion again. I just don’t think it will happen at Wrestlemania. He was defeated in a back-and-forth match against Orton at Fastlane, but it was clear who the stronger man was, and it wasn’t Roode.

If this were a one-on-one match between the Glorious One and the Apex Predator, then I’d be a bit more confident in Roode’s odds. Since there are two other men in the match, I’m less enthused about his chances.

Still, it might happen, but it’s highly unlikely, I feel.

Roode’s Chances of Winning: 5%

Jinder Mahal

If you told me this time last year that Jinder Mahal would be challenging for the United States Championship at Wrestlemania I’d probably say something like “Huh, that’s cool.”

If you told me this time last year that Jinder Mahal would be challenging for the United States Championship at Wrestlemania after gaining victories over both Randy Orton and Bobby Roode I’d probably say something like “Wow.”

Now if you told me this time last year that Jinder Mahal was a former WWE Champion I’d probably be speechless. It’s crazy how life works.

Still, it’s hard to deny that Jinder’s run as WWE Champion was kind of a disaster. WWE has to know that making him United States Champion is not a good idea. I’m hoping that the reason Jinder’s even in the match is so that they can get a return on the Jinder investment. Might as well use him while he’s still relevant.

I wouldn’t put it past WWE to put the red, white, and blue on the Modern Day Maharajah. It’s not the most likely outcome, but it’s out there. It’s just less than ideal.

Mahal’s Chances of Winning: 15%

Rusev

Rusev is the wildcard among the four. He was only recently added to the title match, and he has another chance to become a three-time United States Champion. Despite the late addition, it’s not hard to see why he is now one of the favorites to win the match.

Rusev’s been riding a tidal wave of popularity since last November. Who’d have thought that a lackluster feud with Randy Orton would skyrocket the Bulgarian’s popularity? Now there are shirts, calendars, and greeting cards for Rusev Day. He is printing money right now. Heck, at one point, the shirts were sold out. It’s almost impressive.

Rusev is easily the second most over man in this match, which means he’s got a good chance of winning. After competitive showings against the likes of AJ Styles and Shinsuke Nakamura, maybe it’s time for Rusev to reassert his dominance over Smackdown’s midcard.

Rusev’s Chances of Winning: 40%